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Morgan Stanley Economist Says Recession Could Hit U.S. in Less Than a Year if China Trade War Worsens

Recession if China trade war continues

Investors may still be underestimating the full risk to the global economy from a trade war, even after U.S. stocks capped the worst month of the year.

A recession could begin in as soon as nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese exports and China retaliates with its own countermeasures, according to Chetan Ahya, chief economist and global head of economics at Morgan Stanley.

"My recent conversations with investors have reinforced the sense that markets are underestimating the impact of trade tensions," Ahya wrote in a note. "Investors are generally of the view that the trade dispute could drag on for longer, but they appear to be overlooking its potential impact on the global macro outlook."

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Ford lays off salaried workers worldwide

Ford cuts management jobs worldwideUS automobile manufacturer Ford Motor is cutting 7,000 salaried positions worldwide as a part of the company's restructuring program initiated earlier this year.

The job cuts will eliminate 10pc of Ford's global workforce by August 2019, including 20pc of its management positions. An email sent to Ford employees regarding the downsizing emphasized reducing management layers and increasing direct reports for remaining managers.

The company anticipates saving $600mn annually from this move, which arrived in the middle of Ford's production shift towards more profitable SUVs, light trucks, and EVs that should conclude by 2020.

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The Trump economy is hurting most Americans. Statistics won't fool voters

Trump economy hurting all Americans: Robert ReichThe award for this year’s Biggest Backhanded Compliment to Trump goes to White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, who recently predicted a Trump victory in 2020 because “people will vote for somebody they don’t like if they think it’s good for them”.

Trump cools trade war by lifting North American metal tariffs

Trump lifts tariffs on metals

The Trump administration moved to cool the simmering trade war with its major trading partners on Friday, ending tariffs on metal imports from Canada and Mexico and announcing a pause on planned tariffs on cars and car parts.

“I’m pleased to announce we’ve just reached agreement with Canada and Mexico,” Donald Trump said. “We’ll be selling our product into those countries without the imposition of tariffs.”

The US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium last March, arguing cheap imports were an “assault on our country” that was leading to the “decimation of entire communities”.

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China slaps tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. imports as trade war between Beijing and Washington escalates

China slaps duties on $60b in US goods

China said it was levying the tariffs because of Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese products "contrary to the consensus between China and the United States on resolving trade differences through consultations." The U.S.'s actions are "jeopardizing the interests of both sides and not meeting the general expectations of the international community," China said.

Stocks tumbled following China's announcement.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 566 points, or 2.2%, to 25,372 in early trading, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 67 points, or 2.3%, to 2,813. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been the most vulnerable to trade tensions, plunged 243 points, or 3.1%, to 7,674 Monday morning.

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Wall St. falls as White House vows to raise China tariffs

Wall Street falls as WH threatens more tariffs on ChinaU.S. stocks fell on Monday after President Donald Trump pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, though Wall Street finished well off its session lows as some investors saw Trump’s comments as a bargaining tactic and expressed confidence in an eventual trade agreement.

After the closing bell, however, equity index futures took a fresh hit after senior U.S. trade officials said China had reneged on its previous commitments and the tone of negotiations had soured.

S&P e-minis were last down 0.60% after resuming trading for the overnight session, a signal that investors expect the market to open lower on Tuesday.

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CVS closing 46 stores: See the list of struggling locations to be closed

46 CVS pharmacies closing

CVS Health is closing 46 of its stores, saying the locations were "underperforming" as the drugstore chain continues to shift more of its retail presence toward health care services.

The move cost CVS about $135 million as a "store rationalization charge" in its first-quarter earnings report.

The cuts represent fewer than 1% of the about 9,600 CVS Pharmacy stores nationwide.

The closures, which happened over the last two months, include a 64,000-square-foot location in Springfield, Missouri, once described as the largest CVS in the world.

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