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The Russian Federation is concentrating troops and military materiel for a massive offensive with the objective of defeating Ukraine and dictating peace terms to Kyiv by summer’s end, Ukrainian and international military observers say.

Moscow has been accumulating strategic reserves for a large-scale assault to be launched in late spring in Ukraine’s eastern and later southern sectors, said Roman Pohorily, co-founder of the military research group Deep State UA, at a Kyiv security conference on Friday, Feb. 9.

The main axis of the offensive will be toward the major Donetsk region cities Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the east of Ukraine, with the overall objective of bringing most of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) ground units into general battle and destroying them, he said.

A supporting attack to be launched later, in early summer, will hit in Ukraine’s southern territories and aim toward the major cities of Zaporizhzhia and Orikhiv, with the objectives of diverting Ukrainian forces from the main battle area in the east, he said.

Total Russian forces concentrated for the main effort of the operation could number more than 100,000 men, said DeepState co-presenter Ruslan Mykula.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a Friday analysis made similar predictions, reporting that Russian military command intends to deploy strategic reserves, which it has been forming since mid-2025, for a major spring offensive in Ukraine’s east. The ongoing Russian planning for a major offensive, according to ISW was confirmed based on observable troop movements and recruiting patterns, and clearly contradicts Kremlin official statements that Russia wants peace with Ukraine and does not wish take more territory from Ukraine, that report said.